South African avocado exports increase, but international market pressure limits grower returns

However, despite the larger crop and generally favourable fruit quality, strong competition in European markets, weather-related harvesting delays and persistent logistical challenges have placed pressure on prices and growers' returns.

The South African avocado harvest is now entering its final stages, with late-season harvesting and packing continuing in KwaZulu-Natal and other southern production regions.

According to Farmer’s Weekly, the season began with expectations of a particularly strong crop, supported by favourable growing conditions and additional production from younger orchards. Although early forecasts of 22 million cartons were subsequently revised downwards, export volumes have remained significantly higher than in 2025. Above-average rainfall and persistent wet conditions in Limpopo and Mpumalanga delayed harvesting in some areas, disrupting South Africa's traditional early-season export window.

According to the Absa AgriTrends Spring 2026 report, these delays increased the overlap between South African shipments and fruit from Peru, South Africa's largest competitor in the European avocado market.

European oversupply weighs on prices

Europe is by far South Africa's most important avocado export destination, accounting for approximately 95% of shipments.  According to Subtrop CEO Derek Donkin, the industry's strategy of shipping larger volumes early in the season, ahead of the anticipated arrival of Peruvian fruit, did not deliver the expected commercial benefits this year. In an interview with Freshplaza, Donkin explained that "Peruvian and Brazilian growers followed a similar strategy, so large volumes arrived early in the season at the same time as significant South African volumes."

By week 17, the European market was oversupplied, with substantial volumes continuing to exert downward pressure on prices for much of the season. Although prices recovered towards the latter part of the season, renewed competition from Kenyan avocados placed further pressure on returns. South African exporters are also facing increasing competition from Colombia and Morocco, adding to the challenge of securing profitable marketing windows in Europe.

Fruit quality holds up

Despite the difficult marketing conditions, feedback from international customers suggests that the South African season has progressed reasonably well from a supply and quality perspective.

As South Africa's export season winds down, Chilean fruit is increasingly replacing South African and Peruvian supplies in European and UK retail programmes. Demand in the UK remains encouraging and consumer preference for ready-to-eat avocados continues to strengthen.

New markets offer limited immediate relief

Looking ahead, Donkin expects Europe to remain South Africa’s principal avocado export destination in 2027, as newly opened Asian markets have yet to provide meaningful alternatives. Only a few consignments reached China this season, while none were shipped to Japan. Phytosanitary treatment requirements remain a major obstacle, with China requiring methyl bromide treatment and Japan imposing cold treatment that risks damaging fruit. Subtrop has consequently applied through the Department of Agriculture for a systems approach as an alternative to China’s existing requirements. There is also some cautious optimism that slower expansion of Peruvian avocado plantings could reduce competitive pressure in Europe.

Outlook for the 2027 season

For South African growers, the 2026 season has highlighted an increasingly important challenge: growing export volumes do not necessarily translate into improved profitability. With avocado production expanding both locally and internationally, the industry's future competitiveness will depend increasingly on securing profitable marketing windows, developing sustained demand in alternative markets and maintaining consistent fruit quality and reliable export logistics.