SATI's first 2026/27 table grape estimate: 78.4 million cartons and a season up to two weeks early
The South African Table Grape Industry (SATI) has put its preliminary 2026/2027 export crop at 78.4 million 4.5 kg-equivalent cartons. That is below last season's 81.3 million but in line with the five-year average. SATI's chairperson says warmer weather could bring the season forward by 10 to 14 days.
South African table grape exporters should prepare for an earlier start to the 2026/2027 export season, according to the South African Table Grape Industry (SATI). Its first crop estimate puts the national crop at 78.4 million cartons inspected for export (4.5 kg equivalent).
The preliminary estimate, issued by SATI in Paarl on 28 September, has a lower range of 76.8 million cartons and an upper range of about 79.9 million cartons. The midpoint is below the 81.3 million cartons actually inspected in 2025/2026 and slightly above the industry's five-year average of 77.5 million. SATI calls the crop stable and says there will be enough volume to meet market demand. It adds that staying broadly in line with the five-year average helps South Africa supply consistent volumes to international markets.
Season could start 10 to 14 days early
"Favourable water availability, supported by sufficient dam levels, provides a positive foundation for the season ahead. At the same time, warmer weather conditions have contributed to earlier crop development, and current indications are that the season could be about 10 to 14 days earlier than previous seasons," said Alwyn Dippenaar, chairperson of SATI.
SATI says that after recent rainfall, dams in the main table grape-growing regions were on average about 82% full by late September. At the same time last year they were at 85%.
Regional picture
SATI says the estimated volumes in all five production regions are in line with each region's five-year average. The biggest year-on-year change is in the Orange River. That region is estimated at 24.2 million cartons, down from 26.8 million last season but close to its five-year average of 24.6 million.
| Region | 5-year average | Actual 2025/2026 | Estimate 2026/2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Berg River | 19.2 | 20.0 | 20.1 |
| Hex River | 23.9 | 24.4 | 24.3 |
| Northern Provinces | 6.0 | 5.9 | 5.7 |
| Olifants River | 3.8 | 4.2 | 4.1 |
| Orange River | 24.6* | 26.8 | 24.2 |
| National | 77.5 | 81.3 | 78.4 |
Million 4.5 kg-equivalent cartons. *The Orange River five-year average leaves out 2022/2023, when adverse weather hit the region's crop.
Plantings holding steady
According to SATI, total table grape plantings are continuing to stabilise. The area planted fell by less than 0.5% to 19,434 hectares in 2026.
Focus on moving fruit through the export window
"The preliminary estimate indicates that South Africa is well positioned to deliver a quality crop in sufficient volumes to meet the requirements of our international markets," said Mecia Petersen, CEO of SATI.
"SATI will continue working closely with growers, exporters, logistics providers, ports and other stakeholders across the value chain to facilitate the efficient movement of fruit throughout the season and ensure that the 2026/2027 crop reaches markets consistently during the export window," Petersen said.
SATI describes the first crop estimate as a reasonable deduction based on several factors, including current weather conditions and production trends. It says the figures may be revised as the season progresses.