Potato prices weaken while onions hold firm despite higher market volumes

According to Absa’s AgriTrends 2026 Spring Edition, potato volumes increased while total sales value declined, whereas onions managed to absorb higher supply while maintaining firmer prices.

Potato volumes rise but value falls

By mid-season, potato volumes had increased by 8% to 66.55 million 10kg bags, placing deliveries 2.46 million bags above the five-year average. Despite the higher volume, the total value of potato sales on fresh produce markets declined by about 12%, from R3.69 billion in 2025 to R3.25 billion in 2026.

FP Coetzee, manager of information and regional services at Potatoes SA, told Farmer’s Weekly that the weaker market was not simply a result of more potatoes being available. An oversupply of large potatoes from North West, combined with processing potatoes being diverted into the fresh market, created pressure on both price and quality.

Prices recovered during winter to an average of R64.34 per 10kg bag, compared with a year-to-date average of R48.76, but remained below earlier expectations. Coetzee said poorer-quality large potatoes were still weighing on the market, while Class 1 potatoes accounted for only about 70% of supply rather than the preferred 80%.

Quality and timing remain critical

Coetzee advised producers to focus less on chasing prices and more on managing quality, sizing and stock flow. That includes avoiding overloading the market, supplying correctly sized produce and improving delivery timing to support better stock rotation. He also warned that direct marketing can influence fresh produce market prices if growers divert their best-quality potatoes to private buyers while sending weaker stock to municipal markets. Because direct-market prices are often influenced by fresh produce market benchmarks, weakening the formal market can ultimately reduce returns elsewhere as well.

Onion market tells a different story

Onion volumes increased by 10% to 24.61 million bags, around 1.81 million bags above the five-year average. Yet the average price still rose by 8% to R72.34 per 10kg bag, compared with R66.93 in 2025. Absa said this suggested that the additional supply had so far been absorbed without creating the same imbalance seen in potatoes.

Regional supply patterns also shifted. North West onion deliveries were almost double those recorded at the same stage in 2025, while Limpopo volumes increased by 14.8%. Deliveries from the Free State and Northern Cape were slightly higher, while Sandveld volumes declined by almost 20%. These regional changes show how the timing and origin of supply can influence market balance even when total national volumes increase.

Why this matters for South African vegetable growers

The contrasting performance of potatoes and onions highlights a basic but important market principle: producing more does not automatically mean earning more. For growers, returns increasingly depend on the combination of volume, quality, sizing, timing and how effectively the market can absorb additional supply. The potato market shows the downside of oversupply in specific quality and size categories, while onions demonstrate that higher volumes can still be accommodated when supply and demand remain better aligned. For producers, disciplined marketing and quality management can therefore be just as important as yield when it comes to protecting returns.